The New Popular Front’s menu is heavy and its weight, even before being examined by economists, is sure to break records. The parties of the New Popular Front (NPF) agreed on a program of nearly 180 measures on Friday, largely inspired by LFI, the cost of which is expected to be unprecedented. About twenty « breakthrough » decisions would be made in the two weeks after its victory. The left promises to repeal the pension reform, increase civil servants by 10%, and raise the minimum old age pension. These provisions are accompanied by the gradual implementation of total school freebies (supplies, canteen, transportation…) and an increase in the minimum wage to 1600 euros net (an additional 200 euros). The NPF has not provided any figures or medium-term framework. But the cost of these first fifteen days can be estimated, based on the latest budget laws, at a minimum of 40 billion euros per year, more than the reduction in VAT on energy promoted by the RN. The rest of the program, called the « summer of turnings, » would take place over a hundred days. With the same generosity: the establishment of an autonomy income from the age of 18 for people below the poverty threshold, free first kilowatt-hours of electricity, abolition of the 10% tax on energy… This adds up to an additional twenty billion euros, at least. Retirement at 60, pension indexation to wages… In the following months, increases in public spending are also planned for many ministries (Education, Culture, Sport…), as well as in the health sector, not to mention the construction of 500,000 daycare places and 200,000 social housing units. The most colossal promises come next. The return to retirement at 60 with 40 contribution years is seen as a « common goal » – meaning only LFI believes in it. The cost is 50 billion euros. The same uncertainty surrounds the indexation of pensions to wages (repealed by Prime Minister Édouard Balladur in 1993) and the indexation of wages to prices, abandoned by the PS itself under François Mitterrand in 1983. Jacques Delors, at Finance, thus put an end to rampant inflation. Renaissance has estimated the cost of the program proposed by the New Popular Front at 287 billion euros. How could the left, dominated by the Unsubmissive, offer such generosity? A succession of tax increases is announced: an increase in pension contributions, taxation of savings and overtime pay, surtax on high salaries, reinstatement of the wealth tax, increase in inheritance taxes… The CSG would be made progressive and income tax would be divided into 14 brackets, meaning that the upper middle classes and the wealthy would be doubly taxed. The fiscal earthquake is not quantified. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s 2022 program added more than 50 billion euros in revenue, according to the Montaigne Institute, from equivalent measures. Like that of the RN, this project appears to be in conflict with the European Union – not to mention the repercussions on debt and the country’s ability to cope. The New Popular Front makes no secret of it: it intends, in a Mélenchon-like formula, to « refuse the austerity constraints of the budget pact. » In other words, not to apply the rules of the euro area regarding public deficits and the coordination of budget policies. With the risk of resulting sanctions and the implosion of the EU. A few hours after it was made public, the document was dissected by Renaissance, which estimated the cost at 287 billion euros. The Montaigne Institute, in 2022, had estimated the expenses of the LFI project at 331 billion euros. The presidential party loaded the boat by attributing to the left the idea of introducing a sixth week of paid vacation (50 billion euros), which is not included in the program. It estimates the predictable job losses at 1.2 million positions, due to the increase in labor costs in particular. In 2022, the center-left think tank Terra Nova spoke of « a disaster » after examining the Nupes program.
