The Spanish stock market index IBEX 35 opened on Thursday with little change and struggled to move away from the psychological level of 11,000 points, with market attention focused on international politics and interest rate outlook. Investors remain cautious about events in the Middle East, which are keeping oil prices relatively high, given the advancement of Israeli tanks in Gaza and the threat of open conflict between Israel and the Hezbollah militia. In the European Union, concerns persist about the political situation generated by the calling of early elections in France, which has reignited fears about the country’s public finances, especially after Wednesday’s warning from Brussels.
On Thursday, the French Treasury will hold its first debt auction (0900 GMT) since the call, which, according to Renta 4 analysts, « will give us an idea of investor appetite at these yield levels after the recent increase or whether we should expect further punishment for French debt. » In terms of monetary policy, the Swiss and British central banks will hold meetings that could provide insights into interest rate developments worldwide.
Regarding the Bank of England, analysts surveyed by Reuters suggest that rates will remain unchanged, so attention will once again be focused on the outlook for future movements. « The market is expecting one to two BoE rate cuts in 2024, with the first one pushed back to almost November after yesterday’s inflation data, » said Renta 4. A rate cut in Switzerland is more likely, with the recent strength of the Swiss franc and benign domestic inflation arguing for a loosening of monetary conditions.
Elsewhere, key macroeconomic releases will come from the United States, where there will be data on the housing sector, weekly jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed’s activity index. In this context, at 07:15 GMT on Thursday, the Spanish selective stock index IBEX 35 was up 9.40 points, or 0.09%, at 11,065.80 points, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index of large European companies was up 0.31%.
In the banking sector, Santander lost 0.12%, BBVA gained 0.30%, Caixabank dropped 0.16%, Sabadell gained 0.39%, Bankinter gained 0.51%, and Unicaja Banco increased by 0.32%. Among the large non-financial companies, Telefónica gained 0.23%, Inditex rose by 0.21%, Iberdrola decreased by 0.08%, Cellnex gained 0.45%, and the oil company Repsol increased by 0.31%.